Speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks with Russia are reaching a critical phase, the diplomats said they wanted to avoid a showdown with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has repeatedly warned of the consequences for the region if Kosovo, the United States and the European Union go down the road of independence without obtaining the green light from the United Nations Security Council.
They said a divided international community could send the wrong signals to Kosovo's neighbors, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbs, Croats and Bosnian Muslims are far from reconciled to living in a multi-ethnic democratic federation or even implementing much needed judicial and police reforms. The republics of Macedonia and Montenegro, which have sizable ethnic Albanian communities, are watching developments closely.
The EU plan has three stages. First, after Dec. 10 - when the United Nations is expected to deliver its assessment of the UN-led talks between Kosovo's ethnic Albanians and Serbian representatives - the EU will replace the United Nations as the dominant civilian administration in the province and postpone the recognition of Kosovo's independence. In practice, Brussels will effectively end the UN protectorate that was established in 1999 after NATO bombed Serbia to stop the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo's ethnic Albanians by Serbian security forces led by then-President Slobodan Milosevic.
The EU project, which will focus on introducing the rule of law, police and judicial reform and combating corruption and human trafficking, would be one of Europe's most ambitious peace-time missions. Working closely with NATO, it would take a much more hands-on approach than the United Nations in overseeing reforms before independence.
Second, the EU would supervise the implementation of the United Nations's Ahtisaari plan. Drawn up by Finland's former president, Martti Ahtisaari, the plan was rejected by Serbia but overwhelmingly accepted by Kosovo's ethnic Albanians. It envisaged wide autonomy for the ethnic Serbs who choose to remain in Kosovo while establishing a comprehensive reform program for the ethnic Albanians to implement.
"The Kosovo leadership has to implement the Ahtisaari plan," said a senior European diplomat involved in negotiations with the Kremlin. "We are saying to the Kosovo Albanians that they have to start implementing the Ahtisaari plan, while at the same time explaining to the Russians that we, the Europeans, are going to take responsibility for this. We can only hope that Putin will change his mind in the coming weeks. But I stress, the ethnic Albanians have a lot of work to in the field of reforms."
Third, despite the rhetoric from Hasim Thaci, the former guerrilla leader who was elected prime minister of Kosovo last month, EU diplomats are cautiously optimistic that he will go along with the EU plan for a few more weeks.
"Thaci has to show that he is responsible too and that if he says he is prepared to protect the ethnic Serbs and strengthen the rule of law, then he has to prove it to all concerned," another diplomat said.
But the plan faces several hurdles, the diplomats said. Besides Russia's opposition to a declaration of independence made outside the UN Security Council, it is hard to predict how the Serbs living in the enclaves in Kosovo will react.
"Will they declare their own independence?" a French diplomat said. "Will they insist on joining with Serbia? How will Serbia react? We don't know."
Then there are threats to EU unity. Romania, Slovakia, Greece and Cyprus risk breaking ranks with the EU by refusing to support a common position over recognizing Kosovo early next year.
Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia, has been told by EU, German, British and U.S. diplomats that the independence of Kosovo is unique - a singular case because of the way Serbia treated the Kosovar Albanians during the 1990s.
Fico, whose government includes ultranationalists who have been trying to restrict the cultural rights of the ethnic Hungarian minority, fears that the Hungarians may use the Kosovo example as a precedent. Romania, which has a sizable Hungarian minority, is now using the same argument, while Greece and Cyprus fear it would be used by the Cypriot Turks in the north of the island.
Then there are the unpredictable consequences not only for the western Balkans, but also for the Russia-backed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are seeking independence from Georgia, and the Russian-backed region of Transnistria, which wants independence from Moldova.
Published: December 2, 2007
International Herald Tribune
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